電力是增長(cháng)最快的最終能源形式，盡管其與脫碳努力的相關(guān)性日益增強，但電力部門(mén)的未來(lái)構成仍不確定。隨著(zhù)政策制定者努力確保電力部門(mén)可靠和負擔得起，同時(shí)使其變得越來(lái)越清潔和可持續，更重要的是，他們必須了解是什么決定了使用化石燃料、核或可再生技術(shù)發(fā)電的相對成本。這本第八版的《發(fā)電成本預測》（Projected Costs of Generation Electricity）深入研究了所有主要發(fā)電技術(shù)的發(fā)電平準化成本（LCoE），揭示了一些對決策者有意義的有趣發(fā)現。本報告利用了一個(gè)數據庫，其中包括比前一版更多的技術(shù)和更多的國家，重申了前一版的許多見(jiàn)解和教訓。不同發(fā)電技術(shù)成本的驅動(dòng)因素仍然是特定于市場(chǎng)和技術(shù)的。低碳技術(shù)仍然是高度資本密集型技術(shù)，其總體成本在很大程度上取決于資本成本。與此同時(shí)，煤炭和天然氣發(fā)電的相對成本在很大程度上取決于燃料成本，如果這些政策得到充分實(shí)施，二氧化碳排放的價(jià)格也將受到影響。出現的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵趨勢是，由于采用了改進(jìn)的技術(shù)和政府的持續支持，近年來(lái)可再生能源發(fā)電成本顯著(zhù)下降。報告還顯示，盡管不斷有相反的報告，核能成本仍與其他基本負荷技術(shù)的成本保持一致。然而，在任何情況下，沒(méi)有一種技術(shù)可以說(shuō)是最便宜的。相反，市場(chǎng)結構、政策環(huán)境和資源稟賦都在決定任何給定投資的最終平準化成本方面發(fā)揮著(zhù)重要作用。這項研究的重點(diǎn)是lcoe指標，因為它對決策者來(lái)說(shuō)仍然很有價(jià)值，因為它相對簡(jiǎn)單，便于比較。盡管如此，在一個(gè)電力市場(chǎng)自由化、可變可再生能源發(fā)電滲透性不斷提高的世界里，lcoe的相關(guān)性受到質(zhì)疑。國際能源機構（iea）和核能機構（nea）首次合作，試圖以正式方式解決這一問(wèn)題。本報告由IEA執行董事、NEA總干事和經(jīng)合組織秘書(shū)長(cháng)負責發(fā)布。它反映了經(jīng)合組織成員國和非成員國與會(huì )專(zhuān)家的集體意見(jiàn)，但不一定是其母組織或政府的意見(jiàn)。
Electricity is the fastest-growing final form of energy, and yet despite its increasing relevance to decarbonisation efforts, the future composition of the power sector remains uncertain. As policy makers work to ensure that the power sector is reliable and affordable, while making it increasingly clean and sustainable, it is ever more crucial that they understand what determines the relative cost of electricity generation using fossil fuel, nuclear or renewable technologies. This eighth edition of Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, which examines in depth the levelised costs of electricity (LCOE) generation for all main electricity generating technologies, reveals a number of interesting findings that have implications for policy makers. Drawing on a database that includes a greater variety of technologies and a larger number of countries than previous editions, this report reaffirms many of the insights and lessons of the prior editions. The drivers of the cost of different generating technologies remain both market- and technology-specific. Low-carbon technologies remain highly capital intensive, and their overall cost depends significantly on the cost of capital. The relative cost of coal and natural gas-fired generation, meanwhile, is heavily contingent on fuel costs and, should such policies be fully implemented, the price of CO 2 emissions. One key trend that emerges is the significant decline in recent years in the cost of renewable generation as a result of the use of improved technologies and continued governmental support. The report also reveals that nuclear energy costs remain in line with the cost of other baseload technologies, despite persistent reports to the contrary. No single technology, however, can be said to be the cheapest under all circumstances. Rather, market structure, the policy environment and resource endowments all play a strong role in determining the final levelised cost of any given investment. This study focuses on the LCOE metric because it remains valuable to policy makers for its relative simplicity and the ease with which it allows for comparability. Nevertheless, the relevance of LCOE in a world with liberalised power markets and increasing penetrations of variable renewable generation has been called into question. For the first time both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) have worked together to try to address this question in a formal way. This report is published under the responsibility of the IEA Executive Director, the NEA Director- General and the OECD Secretary-General. It reflects the collective views of the participating experts from OECD member and non-member countries, though not necessarily those of their parent organisations or governments.
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