本文研究了大型儲能系統在未來(lái)電力系統中的潛在作用。模擬的起點(diǎn)和基礎是2008年能源技術(shù)展望（ETP）供電藍色情景（IEA，2008）。根據這一設想，增加使用可再生能源和核技術(shù)可以在電力部門(mén)大幅度減少二氧化碳排放方面發(fā)揮重要作用。通過(guò)增加這些技術(shù)的使用，化石燃料發(fā)電廠(chǎng)的使用以及由此產(chǎn)生的二氧化碳排放將減少。在藍圖情景中，到2050年，風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能提供了全球發(fā)電量的12%和11%。風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能等可變產(chǎn)出可再生技術(shù)不可調度。由于這些技術(shù)占有很大份額，需要采取步驟確保持續可靠的電力供應。盡管相關(guān)問(wèn)題包括電壓和頻率變化，但本報告主要關(guān)注頻率穩定性。要實(shí)現這一目標，就必須保持供需平衡，而且在當今大多數電力系統中，煤炭和天然氣等中負荷技術(shù)以及在某些情況下水力發(fā)電在這方面發(fā)揮著(zhù)主要作用。本文的主要重點(diǎn)是調查2010年至2050年間的存儲增長(cháng)和全球總存儲容量需求，以幫助電力系統與大量可變可再生能源的平衡?？勺兛稍偕茉磁c天氣相關(guān)的電力輸出變化相關(guān)，包括秒到幾分鐘的短期變化，與數小時(shí)的長(cháng)期變化疊加。頻率變化取決于短期變化，因此本報告側重于短期變化。盡管單個(gè)風(fēng)力發(fā)電廠(chǎng)或太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電廠(chǎng)的發(fā)電量可能有很大的變化，但風(fēng)力發(fā)電廠(chǎng)和光伏發(fā)電廠(chǎng)的廣泛地理分布減少了整個(gè)系統所看到的許多發(fā)電廠(chǎng)的凈變化?？稍偕茉磧舢a(chǎn)出變化是該分析中的一個(gè)重要參數。迄今為止，這種平滑效果的影響因地區而異。如果單個(gè)風(fēng)力發(fā)電廠(chǎng)和光伏發(fā)電廠(chǎng)的輸出不相關(guān)，則變化程度會(huì )隨著(zhù)總發(fā)電廠(chǎng)數量的平方根的倒數而減小。另一方面，在風(fēng)力發(fā)電和光伏發(fā)電數量較多的相對較小的地區，發(fā)電廠(chǎng)之間可能表現出較強的相關(guān)性。在這種情況下，將保持顯著(zhù)的凈變化。
This paper focuses on the potential role that large-scale energy storage systems can play in future power systems. The starting point and basis for simulations is the Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (ETP) BLUE scenario for power supply (IEA, 2008). According to the scenario, increased use of renewable energy and nuclear technologies can play an important role in reducing CO 2 emissions dramatically in the power sector. Through the increased use of these technologies, the use of fossil fuel powered plants, and consequent CO 2 emissions, will be reduced. Wind power and solar power provides 12% and 11% of global electricity generation by 2050 in the BLUE Map scenario. Variable output renewable technologies such as wind and solar are not dispatchable. With large shares of these technologies, steps would need to be taken to ensure the continued reliable supply of electricity. While related issues include voltage and frequency variations, inter alia, this report focuses on frequency stability. Constant balance of demand and supply is essential to achieve this, and, in the majority of today’s power systems, mid load technologies such as coal and gas and in some cases hydro, play the chief role in this regard. The main focus of this paper is to investigate the storage growth and total global storage capacity needed between 2010 and 2050, to assist in the balancing of power systems with large shares of variable renewables. Variable renewable energies are associated with weather-related power output variations, which consist of short term variations on a scale of seconds to several minutes, superimposed on long term variation on the scale of several hours. Frequency change depends on the short- term variation, therefore this report focuses on short–term variations. Although the output of individual wind or solar plants can vary considerably, wide geographical dispersal of wind power and PV plants reduces the net variation of many plants as seen by the system as a whole. The net output variation of renewables is an important parameter in this analysis. To date, the impact of this smoothing effect varies from region to region. If the outputs of individual wind and PV plants are uncorrelated, the extent of variation decreases with the inverse square root of the overall number of plants. On the other hand, over relatively small areas with large numbers of wind and PV plants, plants may show strong correlation with each other. In such situations a significant net variation will remain.
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