東盟能源方程ASEAN’S ENERGY EQUATION

提供負擔得起、可靠和可持續的電力在提高生活水平和釋放經(jīng)濟潛力方面發(fā)揮著(zhù)核心作用。在未來(lái)幾年里，很少有地方會(huì )比組成東南亞國家聯(lián)盟（東盟）的10個(gè)國家1更為真實(shí)。該區域人口超過(guò)6.29億，繼續經(jīng)歷經(jīng)濟高速增長(cháng)、人口變化和工業(yè)發(fā)展。在未來(lái)五到十年內，通過(guò)2015年建立東盟經(jīng)濟共同體，實(shí)現更大的區域一體化和結構改革，將使經(jīng)濟增長(cháng)每年提高6%以上。事實(shí)上，2015年?yáng)|盟經(jīng)濟規模為24萬(wàn)億美元，居世界第六位，亞洲第三位。到2050年，麥肯錫預計該地區將成為第四大經(jīng)濟體3。根據國際能源署（IEA）的數據，在過(guò)去25年中，東盟的能源需求增長(cháng)了150%以上。隨著(zhù)人口統計數據的不斷變化和該地區經(jīng)濟規模增長(cháng)兩倍以上，國際能源機構預測東盟的能源需求將增長(cháng)80%，達到略高于10.7億噸石油當量（Mtoe），相當于日本目前能源總需求的三倍。這與東盟能源中心官方出版物《第四次東盟能源展望》（AEO4）的調查結果一致，該出版物于2015年10月在馬來(lái)西亞吉隆坡舉行的第33屆東盟能源部長(cháng)會(huì )議（AMEM）上發(fā)布。這些人口和經(jīng)濟趨勢已導致東盟能源部門(mén)出現拐點(diǎn)。這將不可避免地帶來(lái)雙重挑戰，既要滿(mǎn)足能源需求，又要努力控制溫室氣體排放和其他潛在的環(huán)境影響。因此，東盟必須確定最可持續的增長(cháng)方式。對能源的巨大需求為東盟帶來(lái)了挑戰和機遇，因為該地區各國政府正在努力實(shí)現平衡社會(huì )、經(jīng)濟和環(huán)境需求的能源組合。東盟已經(jīng)證明對這些挑戰作出了反應，最近通過(guò)交付第四系列東盟能源藍圖：東盟能源合作行動(dòng)計劃（APAEC）2016-2025第1階段：2016-2020就證明了這一點(diǎn)。在前一計劃成果的基礎上，亞太經(jīng)合組織2016-2025年的主題是“加強東盟的能源連通性和市場(chǎng)一體化，以實(shí)現所有人的能源安全、可獲得性、可承受性和可持續性”。更新后的藍圖將繼續側重于七個(gè)方案領(lǐng)域，其中“煤炭和潔凈煤技術(shù)”（CCT）被確定為關(guān)鍵戰略?xún)?yōu)先事項之一。CCT與可再生電力和能源效率并駕齊驅?zhuān)砻髁嗣禾繉|盟當前和未來(lái)的重要性。在過(guò)去的15年中，煤炭推動(dòng)了該地區的發(fā)展，其年平均增長(cháng)率為8.4%。區域能源路線(xiàn)圖表明，煤炭需求在長(cháng)期內（至少25年）不會(huì )下降。國際能源機構預測，到2020年，煤炭將取代天然氣成為主要的燃料供應電力，并在2040年前承擔50%的發(fā)電量（從目前的32%）7。有一種區域性的理解是，不斷增加的煤炭使用將需要一種低排放技術(shù)途徑，平衡安全、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和環(huán)境可持續性的能源三重困境。為了支持向CCT部署過(guò)渡，東盟將需要國際金融、技術(shù)等多種支持來(lái)加快部署。這種發(fā)展支持完全符合在《巴黎協(xié)定》和聯(lián)合國可持續發(fā)展目標之前提交的國家確定的捐款。東盟的能源方程式——低排放煤炭在推動(dòng)可持續能源未來(lái)中的作用，為CCT在A(yíng)PAEC 2016-2025中確定的能源安全和可持續發(fā)展機會(huì )提供了全面分析。報告的見(jiàn)解為“行動(dòng)呼吁”提供了框架，詳情見(jiàn)結論。

The delivery of affordable, reliable and sustainable  electricity plays a central role in improving living standards  and unlocking economic potential. Over the coming  years, few places will this be more true than in the ten  countries1 that make-up the Association of Southeast  Asian Nations (ASEAN).  The region has a population of more than 629 million  people and continues to experience high economic growth,  demographic changes and industrial development. Over  the next five to ten years, greater regional integration and  structural reforms realised through the establishment of the  ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 will bolster growth by  over 6% per annum. Indeed, at US$ 2.4trillion, the ASEAN  economy in 2015 was the sixth largest in the world or the  third largest in Asia2. By 2050, McKinsey projects the region  to rank as the fourth-largest economy3.  Over the past 25 years, according to the International Energy  Agency (IEA), ASEAN energy demand has increased by  over 150%4. As demographics continue to change and the  region’s economy more than triples in size, the IEA forecasts  ASEAN’s energy demand to increase by 80% to just over  1070 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), comparable  to three times Japan’s current total energy demand. This  echoed the findings from the official ASEAN publication, by  the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), the 4th ASEAN Energy  Outlook (AEO4) which was released during the 33rd ASEAN  Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM), October 2015 in Kuala  Lumpur, Malaysia5. These demographic and economic trends  have led the ASEAN energy sector to an inflection point.  This inevitably will create dual challenges of meeting energy  demand while also working to rein in greenhouse gas (GHG)  emissions and other potential environmental impacts. Thus, it  is critical for ASEAN to determine the most sustainable way  to fuel the growth. Voracious demand for energy presents challenges and  opportunities for ASEAN as the region’s governments seek  to deliver an energy mix that balances social, economic and  environmental imperatives. ASEAN has proven responsive to the challenges, as recently  demonstrated through the delivery of the fourth series of  ASEAN energy blueprint: ASEAN plan of Action for Energy  Cooperation (APAEC) 2016-2025 Phase 1: 2016-2020.  Building on the achievements of the previous plan, the  APAEC 2016-2025 is founded on the theme of ‘Enhancing  Energy Connectivity and Market Integration in ASEAN to  Achieve Energy Security, Accessibility, Affordability and  Sustainability for All’6. The updated blueprint will continue  to focus on seven programme areas, with ‘Coal and Clean  Coal Technology’ (CCT) identified as one of the key  strategic priorities.  The equal prominence that CCT receives alongside renewable  electricity and energy efficiency is indicative of the current  and forecast importance of coal for ASEAN. Over the last  decade and half, coal has fuelled the region’s development  as reflected in its 8.4% annual average growth rate. Regional  energy roadmaps indicate that coal demand will not decline in  the long-term (minimum 25 years). The IEA forecasts coal to  overtake gas as the primary fuel supplying electricity by 2020  and to be responsible for 50% of electricity generation by  2040 (from 32% today)7.  There is a regional understanding that rising use of coal  will necessitate a low emission technology pathway which  balances the energy trilemma of security, economic  development and environmental sustainability. In order to  support the transition toward CCT deployment, ASEAN will  require international financial, technological and other kinds  of support to accelerate deployment. Such development  support is fully in-line with Nationally Determined  Contributions (NDCs) submitted in the lead up to the ‘Paris  Agreement’ and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.  ASEAN’s Energy Equation – the role of low emission  coal in driving a sustainable energy future provides  a comprehensive analysis for the energy security and  sustainable development opportunities that CCT promotes  as identified in APAEC 2016-2025. The report’s insights  provide the framework for the ‘Call to Action’ as detailed in  the conclusion.