Stranded Costs of China's Coal-fired Power Plants: Investment Risks and Policy Implications中國燃煤

The meeting was divided into three themes: the risks to investors of stranded coal assets, the political and economic implications of stranded coal assets, and efficient, low-carbon electricity market reform.Around each topic, the university of Oxford and the north China university of electric power have published research results. Specifically, the following research findings are:Failure to find these stranded assets in time will have an impact on investors' expected returns, damage the ability of power plants to repay their huge debts, and ultimately allow taxpayers and electricity users to absorb the stranded costs.? the finances of China's top 50 coal-fired power groups have generally deteriorated.The industry suffers from serious losses of assets and declining profit margins. Meanwhile, it is faced with high financial risks and weakened solvency.? it is not only tangible assets (e.g., units, equipment, coal mines) that are stranded, but also related financial assets (e.g., stocks, debt, derivatives), natural assets (e.g., water reserves), and labor assets.? the provinces with the largest potential stranded assets in the five-year scenario are Inner Mongolia, shanxi, xinjiang, shanxi, guizhou and jiangsu, according to the study.The three old industrial zones in the North-East have a modest amount of stranded coal and power assets relative to the whole of China.? it is estimated that in 2020, the surplus scale of coal power in jilin province will be between 9 million kw and 16.07 million kw, and the stranded assets will be between 46.2 billion yuan and 99.2 billion yuan;At the company level, guodian group's stranded unit is the largest, expected to be as high as 23.092 billion yuan.At the same time, the study puts forward the main measures for the power sector to reduce overcapacity and smooth the risk management of stranded assets, including strict control over increment, stock reduction, stock transformation, market reform, green finance, carbon emission quota price and trading, ownership structure and governance, etc.It is worth noting that the government will give a certain transition period or bring the operation of coal power plants out of the market into a controlled operation state.The usual international practice is that governments do not subsidise the investment needed to meet the new standards or pay compensation for the closure of existing power plants.However, governments sometimes agree to compensate plant owners for "loss of interest" or to finance investments to meet new environmental standards.Due to the importance and urgency of coal stranding, domestic government, enterprises, finance and academia have paid great attention to it.The success of this seminar proves this point.In the next step, we will actively promote the research results of the project, and timely submit the research report to the government and relevant leaders.At the same time, the power roundtable platform will continue to organize and hold symposiums on power reform and sustainable development, invite relevant parties to have dialogues and exchanges, and make Suggestions for the low-carbon transformation of China's power industry.

本次會(huì )議分為三個(gè)主題展開(kāi)，暨擱淺煤電資產(chǎn)對投資人的風(fēng)險、擱淺煤電資產(chǎn) 的政治經(jīng)濟含義，以及高效、低碳的電力市場(chǎng)改革。圍繞每個(gè)主題，牛津大學(xué)和華 北電力大學(xué)都發(fā)布了研究成果，具體來(lái)看，有以下幾點(diǎn)研究發(fā)現： ? 中國煤電面臨嚴重的擱淺風(fēng)險，據估計擱淺資產(chǎn)規模將高達 30860-72010 億元，相當于 2015 年 GDP 的 4.1%-9.5%。如不能及時(shí)發(fā)現這些擱淺資產(chǎn)，將影 響投資人的預期收益、損害電廠(chǎng)償還巨額負債的能力，并最終由納稅人和電力用 戶(hù)消化這些擱淺成本。 ? 中國排名前 50 的燃煤發(fā)電集團的財務(wù)狀況普遍惡化。行業(yè)資產(chǎn)虧損嚴重， 利潤率下降，同時(shí)面臨著(zhù)很高的財務(wù)風(fēng)險、償債能力減弱。 ? 煤電資產(chǎn)被擱淺的不僅是有形資產(chǎn)（如機組、設備、煤礦），相關(guān)的金融資 產(chǎn)（如股票，債務(wù)，衍生產(chǎn)品）、自然資產(chǎn)（如水資源儲量）、勞動(dòng)力資產(chǎn)也面 臨同樣風(fēng)險。 ? 研究結果顯示，五年情景中，擱淺資產(chǎn)潛在規模最大的的省份是：內蒙古、 山西、新疆、山西、貴州和江蘇。東北三省老工業(yè)區相對整個(gè)中國水平而言，擁 有中等規模的煤電擱淺資產(chǎn)。? 預計 2020 年，吉林省煤電過(guò)剩規模在 900 萬(wàn)千瓦到 1607 萬(wàn)千瓦之間，被 擱淺的資產(chǎn)規模在 462 億元到 992 億元之間；在公司層面，國電集團的擱淺機組 規模最高，預計將高達 230.92 億元。 同時(shí)，研究提出了電力部門(mén)化解沒(méi)電產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩、平滑管理擱淺資產(chǎn)風(fēng)險的主要措 施有嚴控增量、削減存量、存量改造、市場(chǎng)改革、綠色金融、碳排放配額價(jià)格和 交易和所有權結構和治理等等。 值得關(guān)注的是，對于退出市場(chǎng)的煤電廠(chǎng)，政府會(huì )給予一定的過(guò)渡期或將其運營(yíng)納入 管控操作狀態(tài)。國際上通常的做法是，政府不會(huì )補貼為達到新標準所需的投資，也 不需要對現有電廠(chǎng)的關(guān)閉支付賠償。然而，政府有時(shí)也會(huì )同意補償電廠(chǎng)擁有者的 “利益損失”，或對于滿(mǎn)足新的環(huán)境標準的投資給予經(jīng)濟上的資助。 由于煤炭擱淺問(wèn)題的重要性和緊迫性，國內政府、企業(yè)、金融和學(xué)術(shù)界都給予 了高度重視和關(guān)注。本次研討會(huì )的成功召開(kāi)，更是證明了這一點(diǎn)。下一步，我們將 積極推廣項目研究成果，并適時(shí)的將研究報告呈交給與政府和各相關(guān)方領(lǐng)導。同時(shí)， 電力圓桌平臺將繼續圍繞電力改革和可持續發(fā)展，組織和舉辦專(zhuān)題討論會(huì )，邀請相 關(guān)方進(jìn)行對話(huà)和交流，為中國電力低碳轉型建言獻策。