俄羅斯與中國的關(guān)系長(cháng)期動(dòng)蕩，既有親密的友誼，也有赤裸裸的敵意，特別是在蘇聯(lián)時(shí)期。此時(shí)，俄羅斯工會(huì )在一個(gè)合作伙伴關(guān)系中扮演著(zhù)“老大哥”的角色，它是新技術(shù)和業(yè)務(wù)能力的提供者。然而，自1991年以來(lái)，兩國關(guān)系越來(lái)越建立在能源的基礎上，其明顯的邏輯是，中國是世界上增長(cháng)最快的經(jīng)濟體，截至2009年，中國是世界上最大的能源消費國，而俄羅斯是世界上最大的碳氫化合物（石油，295）盡管俄國一直渴望避免被視為一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的能源生產(chǎn)商和供應者，而中國卻不愿意過(guò)分依賴(lài)于有爭議的北方大國，發(fā)展緊密的能源是不可避免的。盡管西方的憤世嫉俗無(wú)疑已經(jīng)發(fā)生。正如所有涉及能源進(jìn)出口的聯(lián)系一樣，相互依賴(lài)的因素是顯而易見(jiàn)的。俄羅斯需要從石油、天然氣和煤炭的銷(xiāo)售中獲得收入，并將中國和更廣泛的亞洲視為一個(gè)不斷擴大的市場(chǎng)，可以從更成熟、停滯不前的西方市場(chǎng)提供多樣化。另一方面，中國的能源需求在過(guò)去的12年里翻了一番，遠遠超過(guò)了國內生產(chǎn)，并創(chuàng )造了不斷增長(cháng)的需求，為工業(yè)發(fā)展提供了動(dòng)力。俄羅斯巨大的資源提供了一個(gè)明顯的來(lái)源，帶來(lái)了來(lái)自中東地區和美國艦隊所能創(chuàng )造的依賴(lài)地區的多樣性。然而，兩國關(guān)系的性質(zhì)并不平等和對立，自2014年美國和歐盟制裁俄羅斯有能力獲得技術(shù)和金融支持以來(lái)，越來(lái)越多的人認為中國現在是這一合作的主導力量。能源合作在很大程度上是由中國能源需求的時(shí)機決定的，這一點(diǎn)突顯了這種意識。在中國成為石油凈進(jìn)口國后不久，東西伯利亞的石油出口就開(kāi)始了，并且隨著(zhù)需求的不斷增長(cháng)和供應來(lái)源多樣化的愿望而增加。煤炭出口也有類(lèi)似的趨勢，從中國成為凈進(jìn)口國開(kāi)始，隨著(zhù)煤炭產(chǎn)量的增加和現在的下降，煤炭出口量急劇上升。氣體的例子也很有趣。多年來(lái)，天然氣一直是中國能源結構的一小部分。然而，到2014年，由于能源消費總量不斷上升，以及人們希望燃燒更多環(huán)保燃料，需求迅速增長(cháng)的預期促使人們尋求多元化的進(jìn)口方向，俄羅斯作為北方的載體發(fā)揮了作用。因此，簽署了西伯利亞電力協(xié)議，開(kāi)始了第二條西線(xiàn)（阿爾泰）的談判。然而，由于中國經(jīng)濟增長(cháng)放緩，天然氣需求量下降，因此俄羅斯天然氣出口計劃的進(jìn)展放緩。
Russia’s relations with China have been long and volatile, alternating between close friendship and outrighthostility, especiallyintheSovietera.AtthattimetheSovietUniontook the roleof“BigBrother” in a partnership where it was the provider of new technologies and operational competence. Since 1991, though, the relationship has increasingly been founded on energy, based on the obvious logic that China has been the world’s fastest growing economy and, as of 2009, the world’s largest energy consumer,whileRussia is the world’s largestproducer of hydrocarbons (oil,gas andcoal).295 Although Russia has always been eager to avoid being seen as a simple energy producer and supplier to its increasingly wealthyeastern neighbour, and China has been reluctant to become overlydependent on apoliticallycontentious northern power, thedevelopmentof close energyties has been inevitable, and despite western cynicism has undoubtedly occurred. As with all connections involving the export and import of energy, the elements of mutual dependency areclear. Russia needs to generate revenuefrom sales of oil, gas andcoal andsees China, andmore broadly Asia, as an expanding market which can offer diversification from the more mature, and stagnant, western markets. On the other hand, Chinese energy demand has doubled over the past 12 years,morethanoutstrippingindigenousproductionandcreatingincreasingdemandforimportstofuel industrial expansion. Russia’s vast resources offer one obvious source, bringing diversity both from a relianceontheMiddle East andfrom dependenceonsealanes thatcanbethreatened bytheUSfleet. However, the nature of the relationship is not equal and opposite, and since 2014, when US and EU sanctionslimitedRussia’sabilitytoaccesstechnologyandfinanceintheoilsector,theincreasingsense has been that China is now the dominant force in this cooperation. This sense is underlined by the fact that energy co-operation has largely been driven by the timing of China’s energy needs. Oil exports from East Siberia commenced shortly after China became a net oil importer and have increased in step with its rising requirement and its desire to diversify its sources of supply. Coal exports have followed a similar trend, starting when China became a net importer, rising sharplyasChina’sneedsincreasedandnowdecliningasChinastartstoshiftitsenergyeconomyaway from coal. The example of gas is also interesting. For many years, gas has been a minor part of the Chinese energy mix. However, by 2014 expectations of a rapid increase in demand, driven by a combination of rising overall energy consumption and a desire to burn more environmentally friendly fuels, had catalysed a search for a diversified compass of imports, with Russia playing its part as the northern vector. As aresult, thePower of Siberiadeal was signedandnegotiations beganonasecond westernroute(Altai).However,sincethenChineseeconomicgrowthhasslowed,gasdemandforecasts have been reduced and consequently progress on Russian gas export plans has slowed.
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