基于信息熵的河南省年降水量時(shí)空變化研究

第30卷第11期K江科學(xué)院院報Vol.30 No. 112013年11月Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research InstituteNov.2013DOI:10. 3969/j. issn. 1001 - 5485.2013. 11. 0042013 ,30(11):16-19基于信息熵的河南省年降水量時(shí)空變化研究王振亞'，吳德波“,朱余生(1.河南省氣象臺，鄭州450003; 2.黃河水利委員會(huì )水文水資源局,鄭州450003; 3.機械工業(yè)第六設計研究院有限公司,鄭州450003; 4.中國氣象局河南省農業(yè)氣象保障與應用技術(shù)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗室,鄭州450003)摘要:選取河南省1960- 2006 年共83個(gè)站年降水量,將信息熵理論應用在河南省年降水量時(shí)空變化研究上,計算每站的年降水量時(shí)間序列和年降水量與其極小值的相對量序列的熵估計值全省各年年降水量分布和年降水量與其多年平均降水量的相對值分布的熵估計值。計算結果表明:河南省年降水量的年際變化自西北東南方向增大,自南向北減小，自西向東增大,在西南東北方向則沒(méi)有明顯的規律;河南省年降水量相對值的年際變化自西南東北方向增大,在其他方向上則沒(méi)有明顯的規律;1966,1976,1999和2001年的河南省年降水量的空間分布較均勻,2000年的年降水量的空間分布不均勻;1986年的年降水量與其多年平均的相對值空間分布較均勻,2000年的年降水量與其多年平均的相對值空間分布不均勻。關(guān)鍵詞:信息熵;年降水量;時(shí)空變化;不確定性中圖分類(lèi)號:TV125文獻標志碼:A文章編號:1001 - 5485 (2013)11 -0016-04降水量始終是氣候變化研究的一個(gè)重要方量,逐站求取各站年降水量時(shí)間序列。面"。降水量時(shí)空分布的不確定性易形成旱澇災1.2 研究理論和方法害,對水資源、工業(yè)、農業(yè)和生態(tài)環(huán)境等方面產(chǎn)生重物理學(xué)中,熵是熱力學(xué)系統的某種狀態(tài)函數,它大影響。C. E. Shannon把Boltzmann的概念引人信是對系統混亂度的度量,熵增使系統的混亂度增加,息論中,把熵作為-個(gè)隨機事件的不確定性或信息熵減使系統的有序性增加'”。隨著(zhù)信息論的發(fā)展量的度量(2]。這種不確定性應用在年降水量的時(shí)與應用,信息熵問(wèn)題得到了不少學(xué)者的積極研究,取間序列上可以研究降水量的年際變化規律,應用在得了大量的成果,其具有代表性的模型有Renyi的年降水量的空間分布上可以研究年降水在空間上分信息熵、模糊集合的信息熵、高艾期的有效信息熵。布是否均勻。張繼國'31將信息熵的理論與方法應1948年,C.E.Shannon提出了基于離散型變量用在淮河流域降雨的時(shí)空分布研究上,取得較好的的信息熵。1994 年,N. Ebrahimi等(8)提出了熵估計研究結果。的2個(gè)改進(jìn)式,可以由觀(guān)測數據直接得到X的熵估河南省地處北亞熱帶向暖溫帶過(guò)渡的大陸性季計,并且證明了這2個(gè)估計式分別以概率收斂到風(fēng)氣候區內(4),境內地理條件復雜,降水量的水平H(X)。蒙特卡洛模擬顯示這2個(gè)改進(jìn)的估計式有較及垂直差異顯著(zhù)。--些學(xué)者基于統計學(xué)方法對河南小的偏差和平均平方誤差[”)。本研究采用其中的省降水量的時(shí)空變化進(jìn)行了相關(guān)研究[5-6),其主要一個(gè)改進(jìn)式作為計算熵的估計值?；诙ㄐ悦枋?筆者將信息熵理論應用在河南省年設x,x,..x。是來(lái)自總體X的一組觀(guān)測值，降水量時(shí)空變化研究方面,該方法將時(shí)空變化規律則所求熵的估計值為轉化為對信息熵的定量計算,理論依據明確,計算方H.(m,n) = -SInYitm = Yi-m。(1)n臺c:m/n法簡(jiǎn)單。其中1≤i≤m ;1資料和方 法C; =2m +1≤i≤n-m ;1.1 研究資料n-m+1≤i≤n。選取河南省1960- -2006 年共83個(gè)站日降水中國煤化工收稿日期:2012 -09 -18;修回日期:2012 -10-22作者簡(jiǎn)介:王振亞( 1981 -) ,男,河南正陽(yáng)人,工程師,碩士研究生,主要從事水文氣象方面..---_”信箱)huwzy1981.JYH@ 163. com。.第11期王振亞等基于信息熵的河南省年降水量時(shí)空變化研究19(10): 84 - 86. (in Chinese) )in Spring: An Analysis Based on GIS[J]. Joumal of Natu-[5]張紅衛,陳懷亮. 基于地理信息的河南省3 ~4月降水時(shí)ral Disasters, 2012, 21(1): 170 - 173. (in Chinese)) .空分布及變化[J].安徽農業(yè)科學(xué),009,37(24);11643夏軍. 灰色系統水文學(xué):理論方法及應用[ M].武漢:- 1644. (ZHANG Hong-wei, CHEN Huai liang. Tempo-華中理工大學(xué)出版社, 2000 (XIA Jun. Grey System Hy-ral- Spatial Distribution Analysis of Precipitation in Marchdrology: Theory, Methods and Applications[ M]. Wuhan:and April in Henan Area Supported by Geographic Infor-Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press,mation System [J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sc2000. (in Chinese) )ences ,2009 ,37(24) :11643 - 1644. (in Chinese))[8] EBRAHIMI N, PFLUGHOEFT K, S0OFI E s. Two Meas-[6] 張紅衛,陳懷亮,張 宏.河南省春節降水與溫度變化的ures of Sample Entropy [J]. Statistics & Probability Let-時(shí)空分布-基于地理信息系統的分析[J].自然災害學(xué)ters. 1994 ,20(3) :225 -234.報,2012,21(1): 170 - 173. (ZHANG Hong-wei, CHENHuai-liang, ZHANG Hong. Spatiotemporal Distribution of(編輯:趙衛兵)Precipitation and Temperature Change in Henan ProvinceResearch on Spatio-Temporal Variation of Annual Precipitation inHenan Province by Information EntropyWANG Zhen-ya'4 , WU De-bo2 ,ZHU Yu-sheng'(1. Henan Meteorological Observatory ，Zhengzhou 450003 ，China; 2. Hydrology Bureau of Yellow RiverConservancy Commission, Zhengzhou 450003, China; 3. SIPPR Engineering Group Co.，Ltd. ,Zhengzhou450003, China; 4. Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Ensuring and Applied Techniqueunder China Meteorological Administration, Zhenghou 450003 , China)Abstract :The temporal and spatial variation of annual precipitation in Henan province was researched based on thetheory of information entropy. The annual precipitation time series at 83 stations from 1960 to 2006 was selected.The estimated information entropy of the annual precipitation time series and the relative value of annual precipitati-on to its minimum at each station, as well as the estimated information entropy of the annual precipitation' s spatialdistribution and the relative value of annual precipitation to its multi-year average in each year , were calculated.Results show that the interannual variation of annual precipitation increases from northwest to southeast and fromwest to east, and reduces from south to north, but has no obvious regularity from southwest to northeast; while theinterannual variation of the relative value of annual precipitation to its minimum increases from southwest to north-east but has no obvious regularity in the other directions. The spatial distribution of annual precipitation was uni-form in 1966, 1976, 1999 and 2001 and nonuniform in 2000; the spatial distribution of the relative value of annualprecipitation to its multi-year average is uniform in 1986 and nonuniform in 2000.Key words : information entropy ; annual precipitation; temporal and spatial variation; uncertainty.....................................................央(上接第15頁(yè))tree -ring index sequence. The results show that there are three positive phase stages and four negative phase stagesin the low-frequency information of reconstruction sequence. Except for transitory positive phase in mid-1970s andaround 1990s , the overall trend of Ispo is negative phase from 1914 to 1948 , positive phase from 1948 to 1965, andgenerally negative phase since the mid-1960s. Comparative analysis shows that the reconstructed summer IApo se-quence is well synchronic with another summer IAPO reconstruction sequence.Key words: summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation index (Ipo); tree-ring中國煤化工is; XiaowutaiMountainMYHCNMHG